The question remains, does this have any predictive value for the large number of elections coming in 11/2010?
For a clue, we can also look at the 23'rd district in upstate NY, where a very right wing Republican forced out a more moderate republican with the mantra of taking the GOP back from any moderates.
Result, the democrat Owens won in a district that had not voted democratic in like a century. And if a radical right Republican can't win in a district where 62% of the voters are registered Republican, it sends an even grimmer message in more competitive districts. After all, republican registration is now mired at 20-23% nationwide.
And because the congressional elections of 11/2010 will be more focused on an overall Democratic or Republican agenda nationally, and with the GOP increasingly likely to go the far right, the GOP may get another drubbing for the third election cycle in a row.
The other point to make is that in Virgina and New Jersey, it was mainly registered independent voters that put GOP moderates over the top. Since independent registered voters will have no inputs in selecting GOP congressional candidates in 2010, the independent voters may not like the GOP who run too far to the right. I also predict the nation will soon tire of a GOP that stands for nothing but obstructionism. And as the opening primaries of 2010 dawn , all politicians will be under increasing pressure to show the voters what they have done in 2009. If it only lights a fire under the butts of blue dog democrats, it will be enough to break the gridlock.
Time will tell, but the GOP is now betting it all and their entire viability on the outcome. And could well make it into the list of endangered species list post 11/2010.
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