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Originally Posted by ack_bak
That is not what I was talking about. I am talking about the price to manufacture a BD disc vs a DVD.
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But the manufacturing difference doesn't exist in a vacuum. You can't just compare the two and say; "Ta-da!" because manufacturing means all kinds of things which have to be brought up.
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Not in 2009. But by 2012-2014?
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No idea. We are talking about a format that presses out well almost 2 billion discs WW. How many did BD predict this year? 100 million?
The only way for your scenerio to work is for BD to be as successful as DVD and I just don't see that happening - ever.
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Because you are comparing apples to grapefruit. Most new release video games are priced from $49-59. Most new release movies are priced from $14-29. A bargain priced catalog DVD title costs $2.99-7.99. A bargain priced video game is priced around $19.99.
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No - I am comparing at the basic level. More than 3 VG formats have shelf space and there are 2 HV formats sharing shelf space. We have already been told that retailers are not going to be stocking the slow moving catalog titles of DVD. They are giving that business up. Go to an E-Tailer for low volume production/selling titles.
The same thing could happen to BD.
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And since we are on the subject of video games, look what retailers do with concerns to previous generation game console shelf space. Compare the shelf space for the Xbox 360 vs the original Xbox, the PS2 vs the PS3, the Gamecube vs the Wii. Retailers are very quick to phase out the previous generation of games and hardware for the newer generation.
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And they replace them with the newest rendition - all three or four versions.
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Why do you think that is? I mean there are far more PS2's out there than any other current gen game console. Companies are still making games for it. Yet when I go to my local stores that are pushing PS3, Wii, and 360. The PS2 gets little shelf space.
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Game Stop seems to have alot of shelf space for PS2 games - new and used. They are a real force in the video games market.
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And look at the shelf space at Target/Walmart/Best Buy. Compare the video game section to the home video section. They are not even close to being the same size. Home Video has a much larger presence. In other words video games have smaller shelf space but have higher margins.
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But we were also told that not only were the top retailers moving out catalog DVD and CD for BD, but also for Games. HUGE market with megabucks and doing very well (with the exception of May) for quite some time now.
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So you see the PS3 as a failure with regards to being a BD player and I just don't. Look at the Nielsen numbers. Somebody is buying movies on the BD format.
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It sure isn't PS3 owners, except mayber once or twice a year if we are to believe the analysist(s). Yo9u can Poo Poo attach rate all you want - the studios look at it ALL the time. Just another part of their market analysis. And it isn't new news either. They have lnown about it for years.
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But you once again missed my point. BD players play DVD's. Once the price of BD players drops to under $50 there is little incentive for retailers to promote and stock DVD players and little incentive for consumers to buy a DVD player when they can get a better player for slightly more money. Even if they have an SDTV, why not spend the extra money and get a player that supports HD for down the road. At some point that person will most likely have to buy an HDTV when their SDTV breaks. Again, we are talking 2012+ here. I can barely find SDTV's now in any of the stores I go to.
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I didn't miss your point. I am trying to explain to you that having a BD player that is never used to play BD's is worthless to the growth of the format. It's like it isn't even there.
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And lets also put this into perspective. Lets say in 2014 that 80% of US households own an HDTV. The 20% that is left clinging to SDTV. Do you think these are the people that are the core demographic that studios, retailers, and CE's are worried about? That this demograhic makes up the types of people who rush out to buy movies on release day?
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I got 3 TV's on my home (two are HDTV's) how about you?
My next door neighbor has 4 TV's - one HDTV and 3 SDTV's. He doesn't plan to replace anithing unless it breaks.
It isn't enough to get just one HDTV into the home. It fares much better if all TV's in the home are HDTV and that won't happen for another 10 to 15 years - if that short. Could be 20 years.
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CD and DVD. And they have expanded their Blu-Ray and video game sections. Is your local Wal-mart/Target/Best Buy not doing this? What about Blockbuster? Are you not seeing Blu-Ray being expanded at the expense of DVD?
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To be honest - my local retailers made "the switch" last year and I haven't seen any difference since then - talking WM and Target. No idea on BBi as I don't frequent that chain.
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The general public is not enamored with PQ and AQ and extras like many people are. But the general public will also fall in line and buy what is being offered to them if it is priced right.
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Ack
. . . you paint the studios, retailers and CEM's as the Puppet Masters drawing on the strings of the consumer.
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I would venture to say that many people upgraded to DVD from VHS simply because it made sense to them when their VHS player broke or they bought a new TV, and especially when DVD players hit critical price points. If your VHS player broke back in 2002 it just made sense to buy the DVD/VHS combo player because that is what the stores carried and were pushing.
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Someone once said to me:
"Your greatest strength is your greatest weakness."
You ever heard that expression?
IMO, BD's greatest strengh is it's backwards compatability to DVD . . .
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The writing was on the wall for VHS back in 2001-2003 and consumers knew it. It was pretty obvious to them that VHS was being phased out and DVD was taking its place.
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They caused that to happen. Sure there were a few nudges from the studios who desperately wanted out of VHS for a miraid of reasons. There is no evidence that I see that says the same condition exists with DVD.
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So the question is this. What will the consumer see when they walk into Best Buy in 2012-2014 and they need to buy a new DVD player. Do you think that DVD will have equal or more shelf space for hardware/software? Do you think the retailer and studios will be marketing and promoting the two equally? Do you think that $49 will be too steep a price to pay for a BD player vs a $19 DVD player?
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We keep talking about the price of the players. How about talking about the price of the BD's that go into the players?
Basic question for you . . .
Will BD's, on the over all, cost more than DVD's? If the answer is yes - that represents a choice for the conumer. Only thing that tops price in the consumers mind is convinence. BD more convinent than DVD? Hardly.
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Time will tell if DVD will continue to capture the majority of the market over the next 3-5 years.
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Agree - future is not easy to read.
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I have my doubts. I think by 2014 DVD will be on the way out. I think there will continue to be support for it for another 5 years after that, but it will be limited new releases, bargain bins, and super cheap generic players. I think you will see a huge push for Blu-Ray once players hit the $99 and under price point and that it will just be an afterthought for anybody that has an HDTV and needs/wants a new optical disc player.
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VHS had almost 30 years of support. LD had over 20 years of support and DVD - the most successful CE product in the history of CE products - is going to be phased out after 17 years . . . for BD.
