I have to disagree with the whole "Sony's too big and can push what they want onto the public", mainly #3. Sony has tried pushing a lot of different things over the years. Why is it only Blu-Ray that they use all this might and will to push as the standard?
Secondly if DVD lasted 9 years before a replacement hit the market and the replacement cycle for 'new and improved' is always dropping in time then BD should be seeing a challenger in 4 years (that would be about 7 years into it's life). Just the fact that player prices and movies (if they follow DVD) will have dropped to a point where CEMs will be wanting something new.
Thirdly the PS3 as far as BD goes is no longer the anchor of the format. With all the new players on the market and the prices falling to a point where the PS3 will never reach for years to come it's just not as important as it once was.
Finally Sony is not going to go belly up if BD failed to replace DVD. Sure it would sting and the Sony name would take a hit but fail, not in my lifetime. It could hurt them the next time a fork in the road happens when two different formats (VHS vs. Beta or HD DVD vs. BD) are on the drawing board and they are trying to get CEMs to side with them. But that damage was already done with the war this time around.
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