Who's to say that in 18 months there won't be a better choice than *anything* you just bought--house, car, dishwasher, PC, leather jacket...
This is particularly true in Hi-Tech arenas where every 8 months-to-a-year products improve significantly (either you can get the same thing for a lot less money, or get something better for the same money).
At the current (and expected) price of HD DVD players, it's hardly a big investment. Worst case, as long as your player hangs in there, you will always be able to watch the movies you bought, even if the format disappears. I could see someone being concerned about investing in a large iibrary of discs if the format fails, but again, you'll be able to play those discs on your player regardless of what happens to the format.
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