Man, none of us know what will happen with this new format war. We can only wait and see, it happens like this all the time.
I remember how long it took for my parents to get a DVD player because their VHS selection was so large, they did not even want to think of replacing it all. Finally as of a few years ago they got a GoVideo aka a VHS and DVD player in one (POS man, its bad) and now they like DVD, but still watch VHS just as much.
Now they heard of this new DVD war and don't even think about it... For the average person it takes a long ass time for people to buy into technology. So far, for being 20, and my parents near 50, I have always been the first to buy new tech stuff, and my parents second... does that tell you something?
I was the first to buy a "flat screen" tv.. then 2 years later my parents did. I also owned the first DVD player in our house, and am now the first to have a HDTV, and now my Dad is getting one for his new place.
It's a given, the average consumer takes their prety little time getting into it, becuase unlike for us, they don't really care about it
Sorry for any typo's, I gotta run.